The GCC watch market in 2026: where demand is growing

GCC watch demand in 2026 is growing in specific places rather than across the board: Saudi Arabia, resident buyers in the UAE, certified pre-owned and the accessible Swiss price bands. Tourist-led retail in Dubai, hit by the regional conflict that began in late February, is recovering but has not yet returned to 2025 levels.

This guide sets out what the verified numbers show, so that brands and trade buyers can plan allocations and stock for 2027 on evidence rather than headlines.

What the Swiss export figures say

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) publishes the most reliable public data on where watches are shipped. In 2025, total Swiss watch exports fell 1.7% to CHF 25.6 billion, yet the Gulf moved the other way: exports to Saudi Arabia rose 8.9% and to the UAE 3.5%. The Middle East accounts for about 10% of Swiss watch exports, and the UAE alone took 6.3% in January 2026.

Then the context changed. A regional conflict that began on 28 February 2026 disrupted travel and retail across the Gulf. Even so, FH data shows exports to the UAE rose 0.7% in March and 1.6% across the first half, while the wider Middle East slipped 2.0%. Saudi Arabia fell 16.8% in March. In September, exports to the UAE were down 9%, which FH-based reporting linked to ongoing geopolitical disruption. The picture for 2026 is uneven, not collapsed.

Saudi Arabia: the structural growth story

Saudi Arabia is where long-term demand is being built. The Ministry of Tourism reported more than 122 million domestic and international visitors in 2025, up 5%, against a Vision 2030 target of 150 million a year. Luxury retail is following: new districts such as Diriyah Square and The Avenues Riyadh are in the pipeline, and in October 2025 one of the UAE's leading multi-brand watch retailers opened its first store outside the UAE, a 4,400 sq ft boutique on Tahlia Street in Riyadh carrying more than 25 watch and jewellery brands, including independents such as H. Moser & Cie and Ressence.

For brands, Saudi demand rewards patience. Clients are mostly local, the sale is relationship-led, and the March dip shows the market is not immune to regional shocks.

Dubai: residents held up, tourists are returning

Dubai recorded a record 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025. From January to August 2026 it welcomed 6.97 million, 44% fewer than a year earlier. Recovery is now visible: August brought about 869,000 visitors, the highest monthly figure since February, and hotel occupancy reached 66%, or 89% of the August 2025 level.

Reporting from Dubai's luxury malls in April found that tourist footfall had fallen sharply but that local clients kept coming. That matters for stock: in 2026 the resident buyer, not the visitor, protected sell-through.

Certified pre-owned and auctions

Brand-certified pre-owned has become a permanent part of Gulf retail. Rolex's Certified Pre-Owned programme has a dedicated salon in Dubai, opened in late 2024 with around 120 pieces, each authenticated by the brand. Demand is generational: in a 2025 consumer survey that included the UAE, 40% of Generation Z respondents planned to buy a pre-owned watch within 12 months, twice the share of baby boomers.

Auctions confirm collector depth. Sotheby's first sale in Saudi Arabia, held in Diriyah on 8 February 2025, totalled about $17.3 million, drew bidders from 45 countries, and almost a third of buyers were Saudi. Watch lots included a Rolex "Paul Newman" Daytona at $240,000 and a Cartier Crash at $228,000.

Market and channel snapshot

Price bands and the gifting calendar

The strongest growth in 2026 has come from accessible Swiss watches. In the first half, export volumes of mechanical watches under CHF 500 rose 23.8%, and in September the CHF 200 to 500 band grew 52%. Accessible mechanical watches are doing the heavy lifting, which suits gifting.

The next six months are dense with occasions. Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day) runs from 30 November to 3 December, the 32nd Dubai Shopping Festival runs from 4 December 2026 to 17 January 2027, Ramadan is projected to begin around 8 February 2027, and Eid Al Fitr is expected around 9 or 10 March. Watches priced for gifting, with clear warranty documents, sell best in these windows.

In 2026 the resident buyer, not the visitor, protected sell-through in the Gulf.

How we can help

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